Can someone translate this?

I keep looking for something profound but fail to find it. I like Kotler, I’m just scratching my head.

2 phrases

New Normal – post immediate reaction to 2008 financial meltdown. Became common in media in fall 2009. Intuitive meaning, varying based on subject.

High Class Problem – a problem resulting from obviously positive assumptions or occurences. As in, while all his friends are being laid off, John is trying to decide which of the three offers to take from blue chip law firms, and how to turn the other two down without burning bridges.

New business and investment activity

Talented individuals with access to capital will do well.

Artificially inflated asset prices will come down.

As they do, cash flow oriented assets will become improved investments.

Cash flow based businesses reliant on (previously) overpriced assets will become opportunities. At the right price a poorly performing asset or asset-based business is desirable to the entrepreneurial investor. This is because these will undergo steep value decline in the near term, and then will be priced “right” according to desirable cash on cash returns, and then the owned assets will eventually become expensive again in the market, at which time the business is free to alternatively sell or enjoy the scarcity of competition as weaker competitors are crushed by overpriced assets.

Aesop: The Astronomer

An Astronomer used to walk out every night to gaze upon the stars. It happened one night that, with his whole thoughts rapt up in the skies, he fell into a well. One who heard his cries ran up to him, and said: While you are trying to pry into the mysteries of heaven, you overlook the common objects under your feet.

Moral:
We should never look so high as to miss seeing the things that are around us.

When will it end? IT leading the blind does not work!!!

Airlines – “pricing optimization” systems run amok to the extent that people simply prefer driving.
Government – buying a hunting license requires a file folder of dates and records and trivia
Cable – All choices are universally bait and switch
More cable and telecommunications – Fees, contracts, “bundles” to keep obsolete or unneeded services
Utilities – surcharges which are really excessive taxes which pay for things the utilities should pay for themselves
Credit cards – byzantine fee structures all over the place
Credit rating – what other than a network of computers generates this perfect three digit number for each person
Rewards cards – why why why! Why does a loaf of bread cost less this way. (I know all the reasons why, and they are all sinful)

Some industries are plagued by bureaucracy, consumer fleecing and other sins, and have been before and after the growth of IT. But with IT’s growing horsepower, IT enables automation of these same misguided formulas and magnify them all out of proportion.

It is external to the customer. It is in the inner working of the companies themselves…ever dealt with a company that has had major M&A activity (you have even if you didn’t know it)??…these are nightmares.

Of course the entire financial system is full of dysfunctional complexity promoted as innovation.

This growing balloon of endless mazes of complexity in every corner of modern industries has to have true cultural and anthropological forces at work. My belief? MBA’s, an overabundance of corporate-y attorneys, a huge lack of REAL men and REAL women acting like REAL humans, and IT. Endless capacity of IT. The average contract in real estate – the industry I am in now – is north of 40 pages of tiny print. That is a basic one.

It is a needless waste of mediocre brainpower. Even men of great talent…in this environment they are reduced to trudging through the weeds with the rest of us. In 25 more years, will it be better or worse?

Texas Secession

So, a lot has been made of Texas secession lately. I remember a few years back living in Austin and running into many folks who loved this idea, albeit in a sentimental notion only. It’s easy to understand why it is so tempting today. I don’t really think it’s in the cards, but I will say that there are reasons it’s a popular idea in Texas.

Here’s the marketeers take: Most Texans have much higher trust of Austin politics than Washington’s. And while the culture of the USA is embracing relativism to such a degree as to be indistinguishable from a “generalized global culture,” the idea of being a Texan has a much clearer brand, good or bad. So it’s the combination of a greater degree of trust (and in turn affinity), a more tangible brand, and the obvious economic turmoil which together drive such a “radical” idea to the forefront of social consciousness.

In plain English, we’re tired of dealing with stuffed shirts who sound good on TV and who obviously screwed a bunch of stuff up (and won’t admit it much less deal with it), we think of Texas as home, and we’re probably better off on our own anyway.

Sure, its still just a sentimental notion, but that’s how a lot of big changes start.

HR 1207

Please support HR 1207, tell your representatives in Congress.

HR 1207 provides additional transparency of the Fed. I am not an ideologue on this issue but in 2009 when the US government is bailing out the financial system via the Fed, the US should and needs additional transparency from the Fed. Much like a private business loses some of its freedom to keep finances private from creditors when it needs extraordinary support, so has the Fed lost its case for this privilege. The argument that the Fed works better with a certain arm’s length from the government might hold water (I don’t know), I do know at this point, I would much prefer a thorough transparent understanding and status of the Fed.

Should you start a business in this mess?

If you’re under 40, you definitely haven’t been an adult in an economy this bad. If you’re under 70, you haven’t been alive in an economy as bad as some people say we’re in for.

Since that’s everybody reading this (except for you, brave 80 something reading a blog post about starting a business), we’re all in the same boat here. This economy is rough, we aren’t quite sure what’s going to happen, and why in the world would you take a big financial risk like starting a business in this environment?

There isn’t a pat answer to this. You DEFINITELY should factor it in and some businesses probably aren’t ripe for starting at this particular moment. But you already know this. What can I say that will impact your thinking?

If you have a business built around a bigger force than the macro-economy’s force on it, then keep going. This can be broad or very specific. Here are three examples:

1. Demographics. If your business is built around a demographic force that isn’t going to change, keep going. Since this is so broad, you certainly need to think about (or get some outside perspective) on how the economy might affect the demographic force you’re tapping into, but demographics is a major force and if you are working with it, it’s a major advantage. I recently learned Rosetta Stone sales went up 50% last year. Globalization, worldwide nomadic behavior, and America’s fascination with “cultural awareness” aren’t going away and Rosetta Stone is a huge beneficiary.

2. Industry/Category force. The iphone is the best example. If you can grab the coattails of a force like this (such as developing killer iphone apps), keep going. The cell phone industry might flatten a little, but isn’t going anywhere…and the iphone is gobbling market share for breakfast. That iphone force is cutting through economic headwinds like butter.

3. Your business. Let’s say it’s talent (a Great Team). Let’s say it’s capital resources (a rich Dad). Let’s say it’s a rock solid patent (a Great Invention). Let’s say it’s a big customer (Michael Dell is your godfather). If you have a force that greatly impacts your chances for success and enhances your profit-potential, it might be appropriate to say “bad economy, be damned!” There are a lot of advantages to starting a business in a down economy, and it’s rare to have the formula for success in any economy, so if you have a major factor working in your advantage, keep going.

p.s. if you don’t think you have any of these inherent advantages, or identifiable advantage (that is not an illusion in your head), don’t start a business, not just now, not ever. There are a million businesses one could start. Starting without an advantage is a bad idea!

CMBS failures

CMBS, securitized loans made on commercial real estate, is predicted by real estate folks, to cause a massive amount of pain all over the place. This is of course a huge generalization, but the industry press and reports generally show big “bar charts of pain”, showing rising tides of CMBS explosions.

So, the question is, when a specific asset which was leveraged with CMBS goes bad, what is the trickle effect? Well, when only one asset ACTUALLY defaults, which is going to be well after the impending fate is well known by those involved, sometimes very little. The CMBS offering that one asset was a part of was built to have a series of steps which would be triggered which would absorb the blow, spreading it over the whole offering, flowing through a byzantine structure.

The problem I think most people involved in the market intuitively feel is what happens when the great majority of such assets tank? The answer is not well understood. In fact, because each CMBS offering had different byzantine structures, any type of “global” understanding of the problem inevitably ends up at the generalized level, ie “massive amount of pain all over the place.”

As banks and the government work at this problem, with a mixed set of goals, inevitably more byzantine structures and rules apply, never allowing things to just happen. The theory is, if everything just happens, there will be panic and collapse, which is probably true. The issue is because no one wants to smite the Gordian Knot, they instead layer more yarn all over it, making it into a Too Big to Smite Knot!

Questions for Prop 1 on May 9

Before I start, Prop 2 is so ridiculous, just vote no for that.

On Prop 1, I’ll vote no on that too because I want the hotel, but I understand the concerns and have my own. In most of the “stuff” out there, I can’t find a clear analysis.

- What are some specific conventions we’re not able to compete for and win?

- What are some specific conventions we hosted in the 80’s and 90’s which have not come recently, which are choosing other places in part or entirely because of no hotel?

- What occupancy does the hotel need to achieve to meet the annual debt coverage, given a reasonable price rate compared to similar hotels?

- Assuming the capital markets do not improve for 12 months, how is the hotel going to be delivered anytime soon anyway?